Modelling institutional dynamics in historical commons (MIDI)
The MIDI project adopts an interdisciplinary perspective to contribute empirically-grounded and systematic knowledge of the mechanisms driving the process of institutional change. Its starting point is an exceptional dataset of European commons-management institutions recently presented by an international team of historians, the leading one being involved in MIDI as well. Commons are natural or man-made resources shared among different users and needing appropriate institutional arrangements to overcome overuse and promote group-beneficial actions. Our goal is to exploit our interdisciplinary competences (1) to recode the dataset on the basis of a systematic institutional analysis framework, (2) to fully exploit its potential through the use of data mining and evolutionary analysis techniques, and (3) to embed the resulting knowledge in an agent-based model capturing the essential dynamics of institutional change. More in detail, after the recoding phase we will adopt techniques developed to study gene sequences to uncover the relations between the different systems of rules and their development over time. Then we will embed these dynamics into an agent-based model, which will allow historians and social scientists to perform virtual experiments to test alternative hypotheses about the factors that led to the development of specific institutional arrangements and to create plausible scenarios of their future development.
Final report
1. Project goals and implementation
Aim of the MIDI project was to contribute an empirically-grounded and more systematic knowledge of the drivers and mechanisms behind long-term processes of institutional change, with a specific reference to shared resource (commons) management institutions.
We based most out our analysis and modeling work on data included in the “Common Rules” dataset (http://www.collective-action.info/_PRO_NWO_CommonRules_Main). The Utrecht University (UU) group was primary concerned in enriching the dataset and developing hypotheses to be tested. The Delft University of Technology (TUD) group developed a simulation model able to reproduce some of the historically observed characteristics and dynamics of commons institutions and tested it using "Common Rules" data. Besides the coordination of the whole project, the Linnaeus University (LNU) group had two main tasks: (1) to provide methodological and analytical support for data analysis and modeling, especially to the UU group, (2) to explore similarities and differences between cultural evolution leading to institutional change and biological evolution, with the goal of creating new insights and hypotheses for future research.
From an organizational point of view, the first two years of the project were characterized by regular meetings among the project participants, with the participation of external guests, along with periods of longer staying by project researchers visiting a different unit. Starting from the early 2020, all activities moved online due to the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemics. On the one hand, this slowed down the project work, leading to the decision to extend its duration by one year. On the other, it led to an increased focus on the scientific aspects of the work, including the publication of project results (see the publication list), and dissemination activities through online events.
2. Main results
The project has contributed with several new and important findings to different scientific fields including, but not limited to, history, sociology and rural studies. The project outcomes also led to significant insights to the design of policy measures for the management of shared resources. The three most important project results are summarized below.
R1. The rigorous analysis of historical data led to a unique quantitative test of hypotheses on the effect of sanctions and other institutional features on the resilience and performance of commons. This represents an important contribution for both the Theory of the Commons and Economic History (see articles 1 & 7 in the publication list).
R2. The interdisciplinary work with natural scientists at LNU led to new insights on the dynamics of social-ecological systems and their development over long time scales. Specifically, processes of diffusion, increased density, and final collapse of commons have been shown to present striking similarities with the ones occurring in animal and plant species, while resource use showed less consistent patterns in relation to longevity for the studied institutions. These results make important contributions to the emerging field of Social-ecological system studies (see articles 2 & 6 in the publication list).
R3. One of the main outcomes of the project was the further development and application of an Agent-Based Model (ABM) reproducing institutional evolution. The “Commons ABM” was first validated with empirical data and them applied to test various hypotheses. What is especially valuable was its use to test historical hypotheses, which represents an important methodological contribution to the field. In general, the work done on the Commons ABM offers important contributions to the fields of Sociology and Artificial societies, and History (see articles 3, 4 & 5 in the publication list).
3. Dissemination
Project website: https://lnu.se/en/research/searchresearch/forskningsprojekt/project- modelling-institutional-dynamics-in-historical-commons/
Besides the six articles and the book chapter representing the main scientific output of the project, participating researchers extensively illustrated the project methods and findings in several scientific and practitioner meetings and workshops. As for the project itself, dissemination activities were severely affected by the pandemic and occurred mainly during the first two years of the project.
Scientific dissemination included several international conferences and workshops, mainly based on face-to-face meeting in 2018 and 2019, and on online meetings starting from 2020. Among others, it is worth highlighting the participation in the 3rd International EVOCA Workshop (Wageningen, The Netherlands, April 23–26, 2018), the XVII Biennial IASC Conference (Lima, Peru, July 1–5, 2019), the Social Simulation Conference (Mainz, Germany, September 23-27, 2019), the Institutional Grammar Workshop (online, June 8–12, 2020), and the SociSim Fest 2021 (online, March 15–20, 2021).
Activities specifically targeted to practitioners and policy makers included, but were not limited to, the World Commons Week (Washington DC + online, October 4–12, 2018) and the participation in a Dutch documentary on commons and collectivities (‘Ons Gemeengoed’, VPRO Tegenlicht, NPO2).
Aim of the MIDI project was to contribute an empirically-grounded and more systematic knowledge of the drivers and mechanisms behind long-term processes of institutional change, with a specific reference to shared resource (commons) management institutions.
We based most out our analysis and modeling work on data included in the “Common Rules” dataset (http://www.collective-action.info/_PRO_NWO_CommonRules_Main). The Utrecht University (UU) group was primary concerned in enriching the dataset and developing hypotheses to be tested. The Delft University of Technology (TUD) group developed a simulation model able to reproduce some of the historically observed characteristics and dynamics of commons institutions and tested it using "Common Rules" data. Besides the coordination of the whole project, the Linnaeus University (LNU) group had two main tasks: (1) to provide methodological and analytical support for data analysis and modeling, especially to the UU group, (2) to explore similarities and differences between cultural evolution leading to institutional change and biological evolution, with the goal of creating new insights and hypotheses for future research.
From an organizational point of view, the first two years of the project were characterized by regular meetings among the project participants, with the participation of external guests, along with periods of longer staying by project researchers visiting a different unit. Starting from the early 2020, all activities moved online due to the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemics. On the one hand, this slowed down the project work, leading to the decision to extend its duration by one year. On the other, it led to an increased focus on the scientific aspects of the work, including the publication of project results (see the publication list), and dissemination activities through online events.
2. Main results
The project has contributed with several new and important findings to different scientific fields including, but not limited to, history, sociology and rural studies. The project outcomes also led to significant insights to the design of policy measures for the management of shared resources. The three most important project results are summarized below.
R1. The rigorous analysis of historical data led to a unique quantitative test of hypotheses on the effect of sanctions and other institutional features on the resilience and performance of commons. This represents an important contribution for both the Theory of the Commons and Economic History (see articles 1 & 7 in the publication list).
R2. The interdisciplinary work with natural scientists at LNU led to new insights on the dynamics of social-ecological systems and their development over long time scales. Specifically, processes of diffusion, increased density, and final collapse of commons have been shown to present striking similarities with the ones occurring in animal and plant species, while resource use showed less consistent patterns in relation to longevity for the studied institutions. These results make important contributions to the emerging field of Social-ecological system studies (see articles 2 & 6 in the publication list).
R3. One of the main outcomes of the project was the further development and application of an Agent-Based Model (ABM) reproducing institutional evolution. The “Commons ABM” was first validated with empirical data and them applied to test various hypotheses. What is especially valuable was its use to test historical hypotheses, which represents an important methodological contribution to the field. In general, the work done on the Commons ABM offers important contributions to the fields of Sociology and Artificial societies, and History (see articles 3, 4 & 5 in the publication list).
3. Dissemination
Project website: https://lnu.se/en/research/searchresearch/forskningsprojekt/project- modelling-institutional-dynamics-in-historical-commons/
Besides the six articles and the book chapter representing the main scientific output of the project, participating researchers extensively illustrated the project methods and findings in several scientific and practitioner meetings and workshops. As for the project itself, dissemination activities were severely affected by the pandemic and occurred mainly during the first two years of the project.
Scientific dissemination included several international conferences and workshops, mainly based on face-to-face meeting in 2018 and 2019, and on online meetings starting from 2020. Among others, it is worth highlighting the participation in the 3rd International EVOCA Workshop (Wageningen, The Netherlands, April 23–26, 2018), the XVII Biennial IASC Conference (Lima, Peru, July 1–5, 2019), the Social Simulation Conference (Mainz, Germany, September 23-27, 2019), the Institutional Grammar Workshop (online, June 8–12, 2020), and the SociSim Fest 2021 (online, March 15–20, 2021).
Activities specifically targeted to practitioners and policy makers included, but were not limited to, the World Commons Week (Washington DC + online, October 4–12, 2018) and the participation in a Dutch documentary on commons and collectivities (‘Ons Gemeengoed’, VPRO Tegenlicht, NPO2).