Mapping violence in Syria - complementary project
The Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) is the leading provider of data on organized violence. In 2010, UCDP advanced its data collection to daily data on georeferenced events (UCDP GED) as a supplement to the widely used datasets on conflict years. However, UCDP has been unable to maintain the same standard of data quality for Syria, which has prevented its inclusion in the released versions of UCDP GED. This application concerns a complementary grant to the ongoing project, ‘Mapping violence in Syria - filling the gap in the UCDP GED’ (IN17-0514:1). While working on this project, we have become increasingly aware that the heavy reliance on Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) as the main source has larger consequences for the comprehensiveness of the data than could be anticipated when designing the project. The Violations Documentation Centre (VDC) has been identified as an excellent supplement to SOHR, which would significantly improve the quality of the UCDP Syria data. This complementary project has two aims, neither of which were included in the current ongoing project: 1) to add data from VDC as a critical new source for Syria for the period 2013-2018, and, 2) add additional sources for the years 2017-2018. The proposed additions would significantly improve comprehensiveness and precision; thereby bringing the Syria data on par with the rest of UCDP data and allowing it to be released as the final missing subset of UCDP GED.
Final report
MAPPING VIOLENCE IN SYRIA – COMPLEMENTARY PROJECT (IN19-0777:1)
PROJECT AIMS AND DEVELOPMENT
This infrastructure project concerned a one-year complementary grant to a previous project ‘Mapping violence in Syria - filling the gap in the UCDP GED’ (IN17-0514:1), which received funding in 2017 from Riksbankens Jubileumsfond.
The overall aim of the two projects (IN17-0514:1 and IN19-0777:1) was to produce detailed information for the research and policy community on organized violence in Syria, by coding all violent events that meet the inclusion criteria of the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), the world’s leading provider of data on organized violence. UCDP data on Syria had been incomplete (several years) or non-existent (e.g. 2014), and no other data source with equivalent data existed. The scale of violence in Syria had previously made data collection impossible, with serious consequences for research on Syria as well as on global patterns of violence. With the inclusion of the Syria data, the UCDP is able to provide a complete global picture of organized violence since 1989, and most importantly, the period since 2011, when the wars in Syria began.
The specific aim of this complementary project was to 1) add a critical new source to the Syria data for the period 2013-2018, and, 2) add additional sources for the years 2017-2018. Neither of these had been included in the previous infrastructure project, which covered Syria for the period 2011-2016. These additions would significantly improve comprehensiveness and precision and bring the Syria data up to par with the rest of the UCDP data.
The aim was followed throughout the grant period and the project was successfully finalized mid-2021. No major changes were made. Currently, global data on organized violence, including Syria, is available for the period 1989-2020 and the data for 2021 is to be released shortly. Future updates of organized violence in Syria will be made within existing funding.
PROJECT RESULTS
The tasks of the project were concluded in line with its original aims. By the end of the project, i.e. mid-2021, we had released data up until 2020, and we are currently in the process of releasing data for 2021. The current version of the UCDP main dataset, UCDP Georeferenced Event Dataset, UCDP GED, (version 21.1, see ucdp.uu.se), covers all events of organized violence for 1989-2020. The first release of Syria data produced within the two infrastructure projects was made in late 2019 when data for 2016-2019 was released. Revised and complemented data was released in June 2020 (UCDP GED version 20.1, see ucdp.uu.se), and yet again in June 2021 when UCDP GED version 21.1 was released. This version of the data contained additions and revisions to the data made within the complementary project IN19-0777:1.
The main task of this complementary project was to use a new source that UCDP had previously only used for the years 2011-2012: Violations Documentation Centre (VDC, http://www.vdc-sy.org/). Employing VDC as a source for the years from 2013 and onwards has proved to be critical for comprehensive coverage of organized violence in Syria and it has added vast amounts of new information. For 44 869 events of a total of 84 973 GED events recorded in Syria since 2011, i.e. more than half of all events, VDC has either contributed entirely new violent events or added information to events found in other sources. Almost 30 per cent (24 664 events) of the total number of GED events for Syria, have VDC as their only source. In other words, these are new events that were added within the complementary project and which had otherwise not been recorded. In addition to providing new events, VDC has been instrumental in adding critical detail to events covered by other sources. Most importantly, it has helped further disaggregate events geographically and temporally, and has provided enough detail on victims to classify them as combatants or civilians in events where the identity was previously unknown. VDC has thus both added entirely new information, and also greatly improved the precision of existing information.
The second and smaller task of the complementary project was to add other sources to the years 2017-2018 so that the same sources were used for all years that the Syrian conflicts were active. The coding for these years had relied on the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR, syriahr.com) whereas information for earlier years were based on a variety of sources. The source additions aside from SOHR and VDC both rendered new events and added precision, but it should be stressed that this was a minor task compared to the work based on VDC.
The importance of the data collection on Syria made within these two infrastructure projects, IN17-0514:1 and IN19-0777:1, cannot be overstated. Its relative importance is illustrated by the fact that almost 30 per cent of all fatalities recorded in organized violence globally since 1989, is attributed to Syria alone. For the period since 2011, when the wars in Syria began, about half of the deaths recorded globally were in Syria. The addition of this data is thus critical for any analysis of organized violence that requires comprehensive and comparable global data.
INFRASTRUCTURE USAGE AND RESEARCH
The wars in Syria are unprecedented in modern times in terms of scope and fatalities. It is absolutely necessary for any analysis employing global data on organized violence – where UCDP is the main data source – that the violence in Syria is covered with the same precision as all other UCDP data. A major reason for the initiation of the Syria projects was to respond to a widespread demand from the research community for access to reliable data on violence in Syria.
We anticipate wide usage within the greater research as well as policy community, in line with the usage of the UCDP infrastructure as a whole. The output of this project is an integral part of a larger data infrastructure, partly funded by previous RJ grants, and which is the core of UCDPs interaction with the research community, our main user base. The infrastructure reduces limitations for research questions to be asked – whether on the international, national or subnational level and regardless of time unit of analysis – by providing comprehensive global data on organized violence. Outside of academia, we have shared the Syria data with for example the World Bank; the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR); Chatham House; and, the Department of National Operations (NOA) of the Swedish Police.
The current project also feeds directly back to other UCDP data efforts. For example, actor descriptions, which was made on a previous RJ infrastructure grant (IN16-0690:1), is now being finalized for Syrian actors. The work has also led to recoding of violent events in neighboring countries as several actors, e.g. IS, are active beyond Syrian territory. An effort such as this one inevitably extends beyond the specific project and improves on UCDP data as a whole. Ultimately it improves the quality of data based research since UCDP is a central source for such research.
TECHNICAL AND METHODOLOGICAL PROBLEMS; DEVIATIONS FROM PLAN
There have been no problems in the project execution. The project has followed the original plan, but with one small change relating to the time plan.
The work was to begin in January 2020 and finish by end-2020. As the start of the first Syria project (IN17-0777:1) was postponed and ended mid-2020, this complementary project began in earnest once that project had ended. We still employed a one-year plan and thus ended mid-2021 (within the contract, as it allowed for spending through 2021).
INTEGRATION INTO ORGANIZATION AND MAINTENANCE
The Syria data is fully integrated into the UCDP database system and interface and this, in turn, is fully integrated in the organization. All current and future work is taking place within this technical environment which was partly created by earlier RJ grants and in operation since 2016. The technical maintenance of the interface is done by the central Uppsala University IT department, together with local UCDP staff. This work is funded by a permanent yearly grant from Uppsala University and from 2022 also as part of the VR funded national infrastructure, Research infrastructure for Democracy, Environment, Migration, Social policy, Conflict, and Representation (DEMSCORE). The technical environment is thus stable. We estimate that we will be able to maintain and make basic upgrades of the infrastructure, including coding Syrian violence, within available resources in the coming 10-year period. The interface requires not only technical maintenance, but also constant improvement; our current financial situation allows for both in the future.
UCDP is a core member of the VR-funded national infrastructure DEMSCORE since 2020, with major funding from VR secured from 2022. The UCDP infrastructure as a whole is thus integrated into a larger Swedish social science data infrastructure, which further adds to long-term perspectives and possibilities to consolidate the general standing of UCDP, and also provides an additional platform for data dissemination.
INFRASTRUCTURE ACCESSIBILITY AND OPEN ACCESS
All UCDP information, including the Syria data, is freely available from our website: ucdp.uu.se. The UCDP interface, UCDP Encyclopedia, (funded by IN14-0995:1), was launched in the spring of 2016 and offers an interactive and flexible platform for browsing and downloading any selection of data and texts on organized violence. Ready-made datasets in various formats can also be downloaded, including an API. The Syria data has been fed into this already existing website. There are no restrictions for accessing the UCDP infrastructure, thus ensuring full open access. No registration is required and it is free of charge. Once the common DEMSCORE portal is in place, UCDP data will also be accessed via this national infrastructure portal.
INTERNATIONAL COLLABORATION
The project has resulted in a new research collaboration with Professor Fiona Greenland at the Department of Sociology, University of Virginia, focusing on the mapping of cultural violence in Syria and the connection between cultural destruction and civilian targeting. The project, ‘Cultural Violence and Civilian Deaths’, where UCDP is included as a partner, received funding from the National Science Foundation (NSF) in 2020. Throughout the two infrastructure projects we have been in dialogue on Syria data with the HRDAG through one of their PI’s, Professor Anita Gohdes of the Hertie School of Governance in Berlin.
RESEARCH PUBLICATIONS BASED ON INFRASTRUCTURE
We have not yet produced research publications directly based on the infrastructure. The Syrian wars served as a theme in an annual UCDP publication, e.g. Pettersson, T., S. Davies, A. Deniz, G. Engström, N. Hawach, S. Högbladh, M. Sollenberg & M. Öberg (2021). ”Organized violence, 1989-2020, with a special emphasis on Syria”, Journal of Peace Research 58(4): 809-825. Although recently released, it has already been cited 5 times according to Web of Science, and 24 times according to Google Scholar, which picks up also non-peer review citations. The new data has been incorporated in all new versions of UCDP datasets (see ucdp.uu.se) and will also be incorporated in upcoming annual articles in Journal of Peace Research to be published in their July issue. We have also covered Syria in some issues of the UCDP Bulletin, disseminated on our website (see https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/publications/ucdp-bulletin/) as well as via social media (Twitter, Facebook, Instagram etc.). We plan for at least one article on the Syrian wars for a major peer-reviewed journal (e.g. Journal of Peace Research, Journal of Conflict Resolution, Conflict Management and Peace Science), but have not yet initiated this.
WEBSITE LINK
http://ucdp.uu.se
PROJECT AIMS AND DEVELOPMENT
This infrastructure project concerned a one-year complementary grant to a previous project ‘Mapping violence in Syria - filling the gap in the UCDP GED’ (IN17-0514:1), which received funding in 2017 from Riksbankens Jubileumsfond.
The overall aim of the two projects (IN17-0514:1 and IN19-0777:1) was to produce detailed information for the research and policy community on organized violence in Syria, by coding all violent events that meet the inclusion criteria of the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), the world’s leading provider of data on organized violence. UCDP data on Syria had been incomplete (several years) or non-existent (e.g. 2014), and no other data source with equivalent data existed. The scale of violence in Syria had previously made data collection impossible, with serious consequences for research on Syria as well as on global patterns of violence. With the inclusion of the Syria data, the UCDP is able to provide a complete global picture of organized violence since 1989, and most importantly, the period since 2011, when the wars in Syria began.
The specific aim of this complementary project was to 1) add a critical new source to the Syria data for the period 2013-2018, and, 2) add additional sources for the years 2017-2018. Neither of these had been included in the previous infrastructure project, which covered Syria for the period 2011-2016. These additions would significantly improve comprehensiveness and precision and bring the Syria data up to par with the rest of the UCDP data.
The aim was followed throughout the grant period and the project was successfully finalized mid-2021. No major changes were made. Currently, global data on organized violence, including Syria, is available for the period 1989-2020 and the data for 2021 is to be released shortly. Future updates of organized violence in Syria will be made within existing funding.
PROJECT RESULTS
The tasks of the project were concluded in line with its original aims. By the end of the project, i.e. mid-2021, we had released data up until 2020, and we are currently in the process of releasing data for 2021. The current version of the UCDP main dataset, UCDP Georeferenced Event Dataset, UCDP GED, (version 21.1, see ucdp.uu.se), covers all events of organized violence for 1989-2020. The first release of Syria data produced within the two infrastructure projects was made in late 2019 when data for 2016-2019 was released. Revised and complemented data was released in June 2020 (UCDP GED version 20.1, see ucdp.uu.se), and yet again in June 2021 when UCDP GED version 21.1 was released. This version of the data contained additions and revisions to the data made within the complementary project IN19-0777:1.
The main task of this complementary project was to use a new source that UCDP had previously only used for the years 2011-2012: Violations Documentation Centre (VDC, http://www.vdc-sy.org/). Employing VDC as a source for the years from 2013 and onwards has proved to be critical for comprehensive coverage of organized violence in Syria and it has added vast amounts of new information. For 44 869 events of a total of 84 973 GED events recorded in Syria since 2011, i.e. more than half of all events, VDC has either contributed entirely new violent events or added information to events found in other sources. Almost 30 per cent (24 664 events) of the total number of GED events for Syria, have VDC as their only source. In other words, these are new events that were added within the complementary project and which had otherwise not been recorded. In addition to providing new events, VDC has been instrumental in adding critical detail to events covered by other sources. Most importantly, it has helped further disaggregate events geographically and temporally, and has provided enough detail on victims to classify them as combatants or civilians in events where the identity was previously unknown. VDC has thus both added entirely new information, and also greatly improved the precision of existing information.
The second and smaller task of the complementary project was to add other sources to the years 2017-2018 so that the same sources were used for all years that the Syrian conflicts were active. The coding for these years had relied on the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR, syriahr.com) whereas information for earlier years were based on a variety of sources. The source additions aside from SOHR and VDC both rendered new events and added precision, but it should be stressed that this was a minor task compared to the work based on VDC.
The importance of the data collection on Syria made within these two infrastructure projects, IN17-0514:1 and IN19-0777:1, cannot be overstated. Its relative importance is illustrated by the fact that almost 30 per cent of all fatalities recorded in organized violence globally since 1989, is attributed to Syria alone. For the period since 2011, when the wars in Syria began, about half of the deaths recorded globally were in Syria. The addition of this data is thus critical for any analysis of organized violence that requires comprehensive and comparable global data.
INFRASTRUCTURE USAGE AND RESEARCH
The wars in Syria are unprecedented in modern times in terms of scope and fatalities. It is absolutely necessary for any analysis employing global data on organized violence – where UCDP is the main data source – that the violence in Syria is covered with the same precision as all other UCDP data. A major reason for the initiation of the Syria projects was to respond to a widespread demand from the research community for access to reliable data on violence in Syria.
We anticipate wide usage within the greater research as well as policy community, in line with the usage of the UCDP infrastructure as a whole. The output of this project is an integral part of a larger data infrastructure, partly funded by previous RJ grants, and which is the core of UCDPs interaction with the research community, our main user base. The infrastructure reduces limitations for research questions to be asked – whether on the international, national or subnational level and regardless of time unit of analysis – by providing comprehensive global data on organized violence. Outside of academia, we have shared the Syria data with for example the World Bank; the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR); Chatham House; and, the Department of National Operations (NOA) of the Swedish Police.
The current project also feeds directly back to other UCDP data efforts. For example, actor descriptions, which was made on a previous RJ infrastructure grant (IN16-0690:1), is now being finalized for Syrian actors. The work has also led to recoding of violent events in neighboring countries as several actors, e.g. IS, are active beyond Syrian territory. An effort such as this one inevitably extends beyond the specific project and improves on UCDP data as a whole. Ultimately it improves the quality of data based research since UCDP is a central source for such research.
TECHNICAL AND METHODOLOGICAL PROBLEMS; DEVIATIONS FROM PLAN
There have been no problems in the project execution. The project has followed the original plan, but with one small change relating to the time plan.
The work was to begin in January 2020 and finish by end-2020. As the start of the first Syria project (IN17-0777:1) was postponed and ended mid-2020, this complementary project began in earnest once that project had ended. We still employed a one-year plan and thus ended mid-2021 (within the contract, as it allowed for spending through 2021).
INTEGRATION INTO ORGANIZATION AND MAINTENANCE
The Syria data is fully integrated into the UCDP database system and interface and this, in turn, is fully integrated in the organization. All current and future work is taking place within this technical environment which was partly created by earlier RJ grants and in operation since 2016. The technical maintenance of the interface is done by the central Uppsala University IT department, together with local UCDP staff. This work is funded by a permanent yearly grant from Uppsala University and from 2022 also as part of the VR funded national infrastructure, Research infrastructure for Democracy, Environment, Migration, Social policy, Conflict, and Representation (DEMSCORE). The technical environment is thus stable. We estimate that we will be able to maintain and make basic upgrades of the infrastructure, including coding Syrian violence, within available resources in the coming 10-year period. The interface requires not only technical maintenance, but also constant improvement; our current financial situation allows for both in the future.
UCDP is a core member of the VR-funded national infrastructure DEMSCORE since 2020, with major funding from VR secured from 2022. The UCDP infrastructure as a whole is thus integrated into a larger Swedish social science data infrastructure, which further adds to long-term perspectives and possibilities to consolidate the general standing of UCDP, and also provides an additional platform for data dissemination.
INFRASTRUCTURE ACCESSIBILITY AND OPEN ACCESS
All UCDP information, including the Syria data, is freely available from our website: ucdp.uu.se. The UCDP interface, UCDP Encyclopedia, (funded by IN14-0995:1), was launched in the spring of 2016 and offers an interactive and flexible platform for browsing and downloading any selection of data and texts on organized violence. Ready-made datasets in various formats can also be downloaded, including an API. The Syria data has been fed into this already existing website. There are no restrictions for accessing the UCDP infrastructure, thus ensuring full open access. No registration is required and it is free of charge. Once the common DEMSCORE portal is in place, UCDP data will also be accessed via this national infrastructure portal.
INTERNATIONAL COLLABORATION
The project has resulted in a new research collaboration with Professor Fiona Greenland at the Department of Sociology, University of Virginia, focusing on the mapping of cultural violence in Syria and the connection between cultural destruction and civilian targeting. The project, ‘Cultural Violence and Civilian Deaths’, where UCDP is included as a partner, received funding from the National Science Foundation (NSF) in 2020. Throughout the two infrastructure projects we have been in dialogue on Syria data with the HRDAG through one of their PI’s, Professor Anita Gohdes of the Hertie School of Governance in Berlin.
RESEARCH PUBLICATIONS BASED ON INFRASTRUCTURE
We have not yet produced research publications directly based on the infrastructure. The Syrian wars served as a theme in an annual UCDP publication, e.g. Pettersson, T., S. Davies, A. Deniz, G. Engström, N. Hawach, S. Högbladh, M. Sollenberg & M. Öberg (2021). ”Organized violence, 1989-2020, with a special emphasis on Syria”, Journal of Peace Research 58(4): 809-825. Although recently released, it has already been cited 5 times according to Web of Science, and 24 times according to Google Scholar, which picks up also non-peer review citations. The new data has been incorporated in all new versions of UCDP datasets (see ucdp.uu.se) and will also be incorporated in upcoming annual articles in Journal of Peace Research to be published in their July issue. We have also covered Syria in some issues of the UCDP Bulletin, disseminated on our website (see https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/publications/ucdp-bulletin/) as well as via social media (Twitter, Facebook, Instagram etc.). We plan for at least one article on the Syrian wars for a major peer-reviewed journal (e.g. Journal of Peace Research, Journal of Conflict Resolution, Conflict Management and Peace Science), but have not yet initiated this.
WEBSITE LINK
http://ucdp.uu.se